On June 18th, Bitcoin’s price dropped to a low of $17,622 on Binance, and the community has been in deep discussions ever since if that was the bottom.
According to an analyst from the cryptocurrency resource CryptoQuant – the bottom may not yet be in, but we are about 1/3rd of the way to forming it.
Tomáš Hančar – analyst at CryptoQuant – revealed that the LTH SOPR 20-day SMA suggests that we are up to “1/3rd into a potential bottoming process.”
The above indicator is short for the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holders’ Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH SOPR).
Data shows that this ratio has spent about three months under the neutral level value of “one,” which, according to the analyst, is 1/3rd of what a bottoming process usually takes.
I’ve roughly measured the historical bottoming processes/cyclical accumulations and ON AVERAGE (that includes the under two months period in March 2022) we should be looking at a ballpark of approximately 250 days of a bottoming process.
The analyst goes further, involving the indicator’s 20-day moving average ‘smoothing’ line.
As far as the indicator’s 20-day MA smoothing line in technical terms is concerned, between 10th and 14th of July, we’ve seen what looks to be a bounce off of 2020 actual LTH SOPR low, coincidentally not too far off the 0.49 level, which represented the very lows of both 2015 as well as 2018/2019 cyclical bottoms.
In conclusion, he believes that is time to start scaling in, but with caution, “just in case we get one more chance to buy sub-20k.”
It has been about 47 days since the latest low, so he thinks it’s better to be sure to have a potential breakout scenario covered as well.